Is Texas in a buyer’s or seller’s market?

Texas is currently in a neutral housing market, though conditions are starting to become more favorable for buyers. Texas home inventory increased from 4.7 months of supply in Q1 of 2025 to five months in Q1 of 2026. 1 As a result, home prices aren’t rising rapidly in most areas, and they’ve even gone down in some cities—which is good for buyers.

Where are the hottest real estate markets in Texas?

According to the number of closed sales in Q1 of 2026, the hottest markets in Texas are Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (19,310), Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands (18,371), and San Antonio-New Braunfels (7,357). 1

Where are some affordable places to live in Texas?

On average, the cost of living in a Texas city is about 9% lower than the national average. 1 So you should be able to find an affordable place to live in the state. But the cost of living fluctuates a lot from city to city—with Plano, Texas, topping out at 8.5% higher than the national average. 2 Housing is the biggest expense for most people, and the three areas of Texas with the lowest median home prices are Wichita Falls ($199,000), Texarkana ($200,000), and Beaumont-Port Arthur ($220,000). 3 Those prices are about as cheap as they come! But as they say in the real estate biz, the three most important things when it comes to buying a house are location, location and location. You don’t ever want to move somewhere just because the houses are cheap. So do your research before packing up and moving to Wichita Falls! If you want to check out the cost of living in a Texas city compared to your current city, try our free Cost of Living Calculator to determine how much more or less expensive it would be for you to live in Texas.

Are housing prices in Texas dropping?

Texas home prices have cooled off a bit, but the market isn’t crashing. Statewide home prices were down slightly from last year, while some cities stayed flat and others saw small increases. As inventory grows, buyers are getting a little more negotiating power.

Is it a good time to buy a house in Texas?

It can be—if you’re financially ready. Buyers have more options and less competition than they’ve had in the last few years. But before you buy, make sure you’re debt-free, have an emergency fund, and can comfortably afford the payment.

What is the real estate forecast for the next five years in Texas?

Most experts expect the Texas housing market to keep growing over the next several years—but at a slower, healthier pace. Texas is still attracting new residents and jobs, which should keep demand strong. But rising inventory may help keep price growth more balanced than it was during the pandemic boom.

Is it better to buy a house now or wait until 2027?

Don’t try to time the market perfectly—focus on your finances instead. If you’re financially ready now, it could make sense to buy. But if buying a house would stretch your budget too thin, it’s smarter to wait, save more money, and buy from a position of strength later.

Texas Housing Market Predictions 2026

6 MIN READ | MAY 26, 2026

By Ramsey Solutions

Key Takeaways

Median home prices in Texas barely budged from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026, dipping just 0.8%.¹
Inventory in Texas jumped 7.4% from last year, giving buyers more homes to choose from and softening price pressure.²
Homes are taking longer to sell, with the average time to close stretching to 112 days in Q1 of 2026.³
We predict stable prices and more buyer leverage for the rest of 2026 as interest rates level off and inventory climbs

Texas. The Lone Star State. The home of cowboys, big cities and barbecue. If you’re about to mosey on down that way, you’re probably wondering what’s happening with the Texas housing market in 2026.

Here's A Tip

Luckily, the market is starting to balance out. Home prices have stayed mostly stable, inventory is growing, and buyers are finally getting a little more breathing room. That means less competition than we saw during the last few years. But it also means sellers may need to be more patient and price their homes carefully.

Now, the best way to learn more about the housing market in Texas is to talk to a real estate agent who actually lives there (you can find one through our RamseyTrusted^® program), but the numbers and predictions we’re about to show you will give you a good idea of what to expect.

Y’all ready? Let’s go!

Texas Housing Market Trends in 2026

Inventory (available homes for sale) in Texas went up 7.4% over the last year, giving buyers more homes to choose from. On average, homes stayed on the market for 80 days in the first quarter of 2026 (six more days than in Q1 of 2025). Closed sales increased 0.7% from Q1 of 2025 to Q1 of 2026. Total home inventory reached five months of supply in Q1 of 2026, compared to 4.7 in Q1 of 2025.⁴ The closer the market gets to six months of supply, the better news it becomes for buyers. That’s because, historically, five to six months of supply is associated with much calmer home price growth.⁵ This may explain why Texas home prices only saw a 0.8% change year over year.⁶

Here’s a look at Texas housing market numbers in Q1 of 2025 compared to Q1 of 2026:

Texas Housing Market	Q1 2025	Q1 2026	Change
Median Sales Price*	$330,645	$328,000	-0.8%
Inventory (Active Listings)	129,879	139,490	+7.4%
Closed Sales	70,952	71,449	+0.7%
Average Time to Sale	106 days	112 days	+6 days⁷
Average U.S. Mortgage Rate (15-Year Fixed)**	5.89%	5.75%	-0.14 percentage points⁸

^{*Median sales price refers to the midpoint—half the homes sold for more, half for less.}

^{**Data is from March 27, 2025, and March 26, 2026.}

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Texas Home Prices by City in 2026

Looking at Texas as a whole might not tell the entire story about prices in local housing markets. So, let’s zoom in on some individual places. Here’s a look at median home prices in four of Texas’ biggest cities: Houston, San Antonio, Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin.

	Houston	San Antonio	Dallas-Fort Worth	Austin
Median Price (Q1 2026)	$325,000	$300,000	$380,000	$415,000
Percent Change Since 2024	-1.5%	0%	-2.8%	-2.7%⁹

How Does Texas Compare to the National Housing Market?

Now, let’s see how Texas’ housing market compares to markets in other parts of the country.

The median home price in the U.S. for existing single-family homes in metro areas was $404,300 in Q1 of 2026—$76,300 higher than the median price in Texas. The national median price went up 0.5% compared to the year before.¹⁰

Home prices increased in 71% of metro markets in Q1 of 2026. A few metros with the biggest price increases include Akron, Ohio (12%), Anchorage, Alaska (10.4%), and Albany-Schenectady-Troy, New York (9.3%).¹¹

Yes, prices vary quite a bit by market. But generally, they’ve gone up slightly all over the country.

Here’s how median prices for existing single-family homes shifted in metro areas across U.S. regions from Q1 of 2025 to Q1 of 2026:

South: +0.2%
Midwest: +3.6%
Northeast: +4.9%
West: -2.9%¹²

Like the South overall, Texas saw relatively little change in home prices year over year.

Texas Housing Market Forecast for Late 2026

We’ve already seen how the numbers shaped up through the first part of 2026. Now let’s take a look at where experts think the Texas housing market could be headed for the rest of the year.

1. Lower interest rates will encourage home sales.

Good news for buyers: Mortgage rates are holding steady. The 15-year fixed rate sits at 5.64% as of the end of April 2026, down about 0.28% from this time last year.¹³ Home sales may still be on the slower side, but that’s opened up more inventory—giving buyers more homes to choose from and a little more leverage when it comes to making offers.

Lower interest rates can improve home affordability—so more buyers are jumping into the market, and more sellers are feeling confident enough to list.

2. Home prices will remain stable.

Median home prices were up in 12 of 26 Texas metro areas as of Q1 2026, but changes were generally minor. Currently, the market has about five months of home inventory.¹⁴ Historically, five to six months of inventory is a sign of a balanced market. So, as long as supply continues to increase and get closer to meeting demand, home prices should remain stable throughout 2026.

3. Homes won’t fly off the market as fast.

If inventory continues to grow, sellers will start to feel an increase in competition, which naturally gives buyers more control. Instead of feeling rushed to make an offer within hours, buyers are gaining a little more time to compare homes, negotiate terms, and make more thoughtful decisions.

Will Texas Home Prices Crash in 2026?

Simple answer: No. If you’re waiting for the housing market to crash, you’ll be waiting for a while (like, probably forever). For home prices to totally plummet, inventory would have to go way up to exceed demand. And no one expects that to happen anytime soon.

Should You Buy or Sell in This Texas Market?

Here’s the deal: Don’t make a decision to buy or sell right now just based on the housing market. It’s important to understand real estate trends so you have some context, but you really need to make sure you’re financially prepared to buy a house.

That means being debt-free with a fully funded emergency fund worth 3–6 months of expenses—and having enough cash saved up to make a down payment. Ideally, you’d put 20% down to avoid having to pay for private mortgage insurance (PMI). If you’re a first-time home buyer, a 5–10% down payment is okay—but you’ll have to pay for PMI. Whatever you do, make sure your mortgage payment is no more than 25% of your take-home pay on a 15-year fixed-rate conventional loan. All this helps you avoid being house poor.

Sure, this advice is different from what many industry “experts” will tell you. It’s now considered normal in America to have a tiny down payment (if any) and for lenders to let you borrow more than you can afford. But “normal” in America is broke. So don’t be normal—be weird. After all, if you live like no one else now, later you can live and give like no one else.

And if you’re selling a house, you need to make sure you can afford the move. It also wouldn’t be a bad idea to line up a new place to live—though you never want to buy a new house before selling your old one.

That said, if you’ve done your research and feel ready to take the next step, don’t go it alone. Work with a RamseyTrusted real estate agent—someone who knows the Texas market and can help you close with confidence. We personally vet and coach every RamseyTrusted agent to make sure they meet our high standards for excellence and know how to put your needs first.

Connect with a RamseyTrusted agent today!

Next Steps

See if you can handle the cost of living in Texas using our Cost of Living Calculator.
Decide if or when you want to move to Texas.
Find a top-notch Texas agent through our RamseyTrusted program.

Find a Texas Real Estate Agent

Is Texas in a buyer’s or seller’s market?: Texas is currently in a neutral housing market, though conditions are starting to become more favorable for buyers. Texas home inventory increased from 4.7 months of supply in Q1 of 2025 to five months in Q1 of 2026.¹ As a result, home prices aren’t rising rapidly in most areas, and they’ve even gone down in some cities—which is good for buyers.
Where are the hottest real estate markets in Texas?: According to the number of closed sales in Q1 of 2026, the hottest markets in Texas are Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (19,310), Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands (18,371), and San Antonio-New Braunfels (7,357).¹
Where are some affordable places to live in Texas?: On average, the cost of living in a Texas city is about 9% lower than the national average.¹ So you should be able to find an affordable place to live in the state. But the cost of living fluctuates a lot from city to city—with Plano, Texas, topping out at 8.5% higher than the national average.²

Housing is the biggest expense for most people, and the three areas of Texas with the lowest median home prices are Wichita Falls ($199,000), Texarkana ($200,000), and Beaumont-Port Arthur ($220,000).³ Those prices are about as cheap as they come! But as they say in the real estate biz, the three most important things when it comes to buying a house are location, location and location. You don’t ever want to move somewhere just because the houses are cheap. So do your research before packing up and moving to Wichita Falls!

If you want to check out the cost of living in a Texas city compared to your current city, try our free Cost of Living Calculator to determine how much more or less expensive it would be for you to live in Texas.
Are housing prices in Texas dropping?: Texas home prices have cooled off a bit, but the market isn’t crashing. Statewide home prices were down slightly from last year, while some cities stayed flat and others saw small increases. As inventory grows, buyers are getting a little more negotiating power.
Is it a good time to buy a house in Texas?: It can be—if you’re financially ready. Buyers have more options and less competition than they’ve had in the last few years. But before you buy, make sure you’re debt-free, have an emergency fund, and can comfortably afford the payment.
What is the real estate forecast for the next five years in Texas?: Most experts expect the Texas housing market to keep growing over the next several years—but at a slower, healthier pace. Texas is still attracting new residents and jobs, which should keep demand strong. But rising inventory may help keep price growth more balanced than it was during the pandemic boom.
Is it better to buy a house now or wait until 2027?: Don’t try to time the market perfectly—focus on your finances instead. If you’re financially ready now, it could make sense to buy. But if buying a house would stretch your budget too thin, it’s smarter to wait, save more money, and buy from a position of strength later.

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About the author

Ramsey Solutions

Ramsey Solutions has been committed to helping people regain control of their money, build wealth, grow their leadership skills, and enhance their lives through personal development since 1992. Millions of people have used our financial advice through 22 books (including 12 national bestsellers) published by Ramsey Press, as well as two syndicated radio shows and 10 podcasts, which have over 17 million weekly listeners. Learn More.