Florida Housing Market Predictions 2023

So, you’re tossing around the idea of packing up your bags and moving to Florida?

As you’re thinking about moving to the home of Disney World, the Daytona 500 and a 200-foot alligator named Swampy (yep, that’s a real thing), you’re probably wondering about the Florida housing market. Well, you’re in luck! We dug into the latest news on the Florida housing market to give you a heads up on what to expect in the Sunshine State.

Now, the best way to learn about Florida’s housing market is to talk to a real estate agent who actually lives in Florida (you can find one through our RamseyTrusted program), but these numbers and predictions will give you a good idea of what to look out for.

Ready to dive in? Let’s go!

What’s the Florida Housing Market Like?

Just like pretty much everywhere else in the U.S., housing prices in Florida are continuing to go up, though not as rapidly as they did in 2021.

Here’s a look at Florida’s housing market numbers from Q4 2022 (October-December) compared to Q4 2021:

Florida Housing Market*	Q4 2022	Q4 2021	Percent Change
Median Sale Price**	$400,000	$365,000	+9.6%
Inventory (Active Listings)	65,786	30,344	+116.8%
Closed Sales	57,004	85,157	-33.1%
Median Time to Sale***	76 days	54 days	+40.7%1
Average Mortgage Rate (15-Year Fixed)	5.68%	2.33%	+143.78%2

_{*Numbers in this chart represent data on single-family homes only.
**Median Sale Price refers to the midpoint—half the homes were sold for more, half for less.
***Median Time to Sale is the number of days between the listing and closing of a home sale—half of homes selling this quarter took more time to sell, half took less.}

Florida Housing Market in Major Cities

Sometimes, looking at an entire state’s housing market doesn’t paint a complete picture of what the market is like in individual cities. So, here’s a look at some housing market numbers in three of Florida’s biggest cities: Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville.

	Orlando	Tampa	Jacksonville
Median Sale Price	$422,745	$399,000	$386,000
Year over Year % Change	+11.2%	+12.4%	11.2%3

How Does Florida Compare to the National Housing Market?

Now let’s see how Florida’s housing market compares to other states’ markets. At the national level, home listing prices increased around 8.4% in December 2022 compared to the year before.⁴ During that same time, these three states rose to the top with the highest home price increases year over year:

• Nebraska (32%)
• Wyoming (31%)
• Kansas (29%)⁵

Compared to those big numbers, Florida’s 9.1% growth in listing price seems pretty small! Overall, 31 states’ median listing price grew more from the end of 2021 to the end of 2022 than Florida’s, and 18 states saw less growth.⁶

Florida Housing Market Predictions for 2023

We’ve taken a look at the numbers, so let’s shift into seeing what some real estate gurus are predicting about the Florida housing market heading into 2023.

1. The market won’t be as red-hot.

Remember what the housing market was like during and after COVID-19 shutdowns? Totally nuts! Buyers were freaking out left and right, and sellers got overwhelmed with offers about five seconds after listing their homes.

Since then, things have definitely calmed down both in Florida and all over the country. That trend will continue into 2023, Florida Realtors® chief economist Brad O’Connor said.

“We expect the state’s residential real estate market to return to a more typical pace,” O’Connor told the audience at the 2023 Florida Real Estate Trends summit. “I believe 2023 will look more like the ‘traditional’ housing market years of 2018–2019 in Florida as supply and demand become more balanced.”⁷

2. Prices will relax, but not plummet.

If you’re waiting for the housing market to crash in Florida or anywhere else, you’re going to be waiting for a while (like, probably forever). That’s because, for housing prices to totally plummet, inventory has to go way up. O’Connor said that’s not going to happen in Florida anytime soon.

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“We are going to see some relaxing or easing in prices, but we’re not going to see a great drop unless or until we see more supply available,” he said. “Falling demand is only one ingredient needed for a large correction; we also need a flood of supply—in the last housing cycle, this came from overbuilding and foreclosures. And it’s unlikely that we’re going to see a flood of newly built homes on the market.”⁸

3. Demand for buying a house isn’t going away.

With inflation still on the rise across the country, it’s no wonder that lots of folks are cutting back on spending to create more margin in their budget. After all, inflation is the biggest money problem for 40% of Americans, according to our Ramsey State of Personal Finance study.

But even though people are cutting back on spending, they still want to own a home—that’s what Morning Consult chief economist John Leer is seeing. “Buyers are still waiting in the wings, interested in purchasing a home as soon as they’re able to do so financially,” Leer said.

“We continue to see that homeownership remains a strong goal for consumers, particularly for young adults looking to start a family and who feel secure in their jobs and ready for that next transition.”⁹

Florida Real Estate Forecast for the Next Five Years

Making real estate market predictions one year ahead already isn’t easy, and making predictions five years ahead is even harder. But that doesn’t stop people from trying!

U.S. News and World Report released a real estate market forecast for 2027, and it’s good news for home buyers. Five years from now, the average median home sales price in the U.S. will be the same as it is right now ($367,000) and mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed will have dropped to 4.5%, according to their predictions.¹⁰

But remember, making predictions five years out is difficult even for the best economists, so you should take those numbers with a grain of salt. Forecasts like that are great for sparking discussions, but you should never base your plans on them.

Should You Buy or Sell in This Florida Market?

Here’s the deal: You shouldn’t let the housing market control your decision on whether to buy or sell right now. It’s important to understand real estate trends so you have some context, but you should base your decision on your individual situation.

For example, if you’re buying a house, you need to make sure you’re financially prepared. That means being debt-free with a full emergency fund worth 3–6 months of your typical expenses, and having enough cash saved up to make a down payment of at least 5–10%. (By the way, a 20% down payment is best because it means you won’t have to pay for private mortgage insurance.)

And if you’re selling a house, you need to make sure you can afford the move and that doing so won’t hurt your financial situation. It also wouldn’t be a bad idea to line up a new place to live—though you never want to buy a new house before selling your old one.

Find a Florida Real Estate Agent We Trust

If you’re ready to buy or sell a house in Florida, you need to work with a real estate agent. For a fast and easy way to find top-notch Florida agents we trust, try our RamseyTrusted program. We handpick Florida agents who meet our high standards for excellence and regularly coach them on how to serve you better. That’s how they’ve earned the right to be called RamseyTrusted.

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