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Florida Housing Market Predictions 2022

So you’re thinking about buying or selling a house in beautiful, sunny Florida. But real estate has been crazy the last few years and you’re not sure what’s the smartest move to make.

We get it. At Ramsey, we want your home to be a blessing, not a curse. That’s why we dug into the latest news on the Florida housing market to give you a heads up on what to expect in the Sunshine State.

But before we start, know that ultimately the best way to learn about Florida’s housing market is to talk to a real estate agent who actually lives in Florida. The Florida agents we trust are local experts and can guide you to make your best housing decisions.

Now slip on your flippers and let’s dive in!

What’s the Florida Housing Market Like?

Overall, the Florida housing market is still pretty hot and is expected to stay that way throughout 2022. This is great if you’re a seller because it means home prices are going up and there isn’t much selling competition—so you get the luxury of choosing from the best offers on your timeline.

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On the flip side, Florida home buyers have it pretty rough since post-pandemic buyer demand is on the rise and available homes for sale are still down. The best deals are getting plucked off the market fast! And now that mortgage rates are going back up after record lows, it’s no wonder why home closings in Florida are slightly down compared to the booming market of 2021.1

Even so, don’t let that get you down—there’s still hope for you buyers out there, which we’ll cover later.

But first, here’s a look at Florida’s housing market numbers from Q1 2022 (January–March) compared to Q1 2021:

Florida Housing Market*

Q1 2022

Q1 2021

Percent Change

Median Sale Price**




Inventory (Active Listings)




Closed Sales




Median Time to Sale***

53 Days

64 Days


Average Mortgage Rate

(15-Year Fixed)




*Numbers in this chart represent data on single-family homes only.

**Median Sale Price refers to the midpoint—half the homes sold for more, half for less.

***Median Time to Sale is the number of days between the listing and closing of a home sale—half of homes selling this quarter took more time to sell, half took less.

How Does Florida Compare to the National Housing Market?

Now let’s see how Florida’s housing market compares to other states by looking closer at the start of spring—typically one of the hottest seasons for real estate. At the national level, home prices increased 20.9% in March 2022 compared to last year.4 During that same time, check out which states rose to the top with the highest home price increases year over year:

Did you catch that? In March, Florida home prices shot up 50% higher than national home prices—that’s insane!

Florida Cities With the Hottest Housing Markets

So what cities in Florida are making the market so hot? Well, of the 20 largest metro areas in the U.S., Tampa, located along Florida’s Gulf Coast, hit the highest year-over-year home price increase at 32.5% in March 2022.6

Another city in Florida that’s making a splash is Orlando. Of the 40 largest metros, the home of Disney World and Universal Studios ranked the highest among most-improved housing markets by jumping 138 spots on REALTORS® list of hottest housing markets.7 And if you’re curious, Orlando received the most attention from potential buyers in the Miami, New York City and Washington D.C. metro areas.

Florida Housing Market Predictions for 2022

Real estate gurus are predicting that the Florida housing market will stay hot throughout 2022, as we mentioned earlier. However, Florida REALTORS® Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor said the only factor that might change things a bit is the impact of increasing mortgage interest rates.8

1. Higher Mortgage Rates Could Slow Price Growth

Higher mortgage rates might make unprepared home buyers pause on their purchasing plans. If that lowers buyer demand enough in certain Florida markets, it could result in slower price growth. Slower price growth could help remaining buyers who can handle higher rates feel more confident about finding a home they can afford.

2. Home Sales Will Go Down a Bit

For the last 15 years, the supply of new homes in Florida has been trailing behind population growth.9 Top that off with the increase of post-pandemic migration to Florida and that creates a huge gap in supply and demand—which drives home prices up. As a result, buyers feel less confident about finding a home they can afford. And that leads to fewer home sales.

But Florida experts think this could actually end up being a positive factor that’ll help the long-term health of the market. After all, it’s not like home sales will drop to zero—experts think there will just be less of them. For example, instead of getting 15–20 offers, a good house might get four or five offers in this market.

That’s not a bad deal for both buyers and sellers. And it could make homeowners who are thinking of selling feel more confident about finding a new home, which could lead to more listings in 2022.

3. Affordable Homes Will Be in High Demand

Okay, reading that might have you saying “no duh.” But hear us out. O’Connor noted that in the first half of 2021 there was a never-before-seen explosion of affluent buyers from the Northeast and California moving to Florida. And, of course, this drove prices up on luxury homes. For example, last year one in every five home sales in Miami-Dade sold for $1 million or more, compared to one in 13 sales a few years ago.10 In other words, luxury homes took the spotlight in 2021. But in 2022, experts think buyer demand for luxury homes will level off and shift to more affordable homes—like ones in North Port and Naples.11

4. Florida’s Smaller Markets Will Receive More Attention

The real estate gurus predict that 2022 will be about Florida’s west coast. As the popularity of remote work continues to grow, they believe people will continue to move from major cities to find a slower-paced lifestyle with a little more “legroom.” This trend could spotlight smaller markets like the Panhandle, Lakeland, Fort Myers and Melbourne, which are generally more affordable compared to Florida’s larger metros.12

Keep in mind, Florida housing market forecasts like these are about as reliable as a weather forecast—no one can predict what’s going to happen with 100% accuracy. They can only give you an idea of what to expect if you buy or sell a house in the coming months.

Should You Buy or Sell in This Florida Market?

First, don’t let what’s happening in the Florida housing market control your housing decisions—only your personal situation and finances should do that! With that said, here are some things to consider whether you’re selling or buying in Florida.

Florida Sellers

If you’re selling a house in Florida this year, chances are you’ll still probably make a nice profit. The question then becomes, will you have a hard time finding your next home with inventory so low? For help with that, check out our advice for Florida buyers.

Florida Buyers

Yes, home prices and mortgage rates are rising, and the limited supply of affordable homes are getting plucked off the market fast. So, what can you do to be ready to buy in this market? Here are some tips:

  • Don’t buy a house you can’t afford. It doesn’t matter how much money a mortgage lender will give you, if you’d struggle to make payments, now’s not the time to buy. To figure out your housing budget, use the 25% rule—never buy a home that comes with a monthly payment that’s more than 25% of your monthly take-home pay. That 25% limit includes principal, interest, property taxes, home insurance, private mortgage insurance (PMI), and homeowners association (HOA) fees. Use our Florida mortgage calculator to enter your down payment amount and try out different home prices within your budget.
  • Save at least a 10–20% down payment. In this housing market (and every market), it’s so important to have a big down payment. Not only does a down payment of 10–20% or more lower your monthly payment and save you thousands and thousands of dollars in interest over the long term, it also makes it easier for you to get approved for a mortgage. We get that a range of 10–20% might sound out of reach. But you can do it! This plan will show you the best way to save for a bigger down payment.
  • Get preapproved for a mortgage. A mortgage preapproval is more than getting prequalified—it means a lender has looked into your finances and has given you the okay on how much money you can borrow. This gives you a leg up on competing buyers because it shows sellers you're serious about buying a house and that you won’t be denied a mortgage if they decide to sell you their home. To get preapproved for a mortgage you can pay off fast, talk to the home loan specialists we trust at Churchill Mortgage about getting a 15-year fixed-rate conventional loan. Any other type of mortgage will drown you in interest and extra fees and keep you in debt for decades.
  • Plan for moving expenses. Plenty of moves cost over $1,000, which means you don’t want to let that cost sneak up on you or just “figure it out later.” You need to make a plan and a budget for moving. Part of that budget may include getting a moving and storage service like PODS on your side. Their super convenient containers (which they deliver straight to your driveway) take so much of the hassle out of moving.
  • Work with a top-notch real estate agent. An experienced Florida agent is your best ally in a crazy housing market. The top ones will work to understand your budget. They’ll help you consider all the costs of living in Florida to make sure you only pick an area that’s affordable compared to where you live now. They’ll also be your guide in finding the right house on your timeline so you can focus on your moving-to-Florida checklist.

Find a Florida Real Estate Agent We Trust

If you already know the area in Florida where you want to move, it’s time to work with a real estate agent. For a fast and easy way to find Florida agents we trust, try our Endorsed Local Providers (ELP) program. We handpick Florida agents who meet Ramsey’s high standards for excellence and regularly coach them on how to serve you better. That’s how they’ve earned the right to be called RamseyTrusted.

Find the best Florida real estate agents!

Ramsey Solutions

About the author

Ramsey Solutions

Ramsey Solutions has been committed to helping people regain control of their money, build wealth, grow their leadership skills, and enhance their lives through personal development since 1992. Millions of people have used our financial advice through 22 books (including 12 national bestsellers) published by Ramsey Press, as well as two syndicated radio shows and 10 podcasts, which have over 17 million weekly listeners. Learn More.

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