Florida Housing Market Predictions 2024

So, you’re tossing around the idea of packing up your bags and moving to Florida.

If you’re thinking about moving to the home of Disney World, the Daytona 500 and a 200-foot alligator named Swampy (yep, that’s a real thing), you’re probably wondering about the Florida housing market. Well, you’re in luck! We dug into the latest news on the housing market in Florida to give you a heads-up on what to expect in the Sunshine State.

Now, the best way to learn about Florida’s market is to talk to a real estate agent who actually lives in Florida (you can find one through our RamseyTrusted program), but these numbers and predictions will give you a good idea of what to look out for.

Ready to dive in? Let’s go!

 

What’s the Florida Housing Market Like?

Just like pretty much everywhere else in the U.S., housing prices in Florida went up in 2023—though not by a whole lot.

Here’s a look at Florida’s numbers from Q4 2023 compared to Q4 2022:

Florida Housing Market*	October 2023	October 2022	Percent Change
Median Sale Price**	$410,000	$401,990	+2.0%
Inventory (Active Listings)	74,703	68,813	+8.6%
Closed Sales	19,729	20,837	-5.3%
Median Time to Sale***	71 days	70 days	+1.4%1
Average Mortgage Rate (15-Year Fixed)	7.03%	6.36%	+10%2

_{*Numbers in this chart represent data on single-family homes only.**Median Sale Price refers to the midpoint—half the homes were sold for more, half for less.***Median Time to Sale is the number of days between the listing and closing of a home sale—half of homes selling this quarter took more time to sell, half took less.}

Florida Housing Market in Major Cities

Sometimes, looking at an entire state’s housing situation doesn’t paint a complete picture of what it’s like in individual cities. So, here’s a look at some housing market numbers in three of Florida’s biggest cities: Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville.

	Orlando	Tampa	Jacksonville
Median Listing Price	$447,450	$425,000	$412,000
Year Over Year % Change	+0.02%	+0.02%	+0.04%3

How Does Florida Compare to the National Housing Market?

Now, let’s see how Florida’s real estate market compares to the U.S. as a whole. At the national level, the median home listing price in November 2023 was $420,000. Florida’s median listing price during the same timeframe was a bit more expensive at $462,623—9.66% higher than the typical national price.

Still, Florida’s housing prices are more affordable than what you’d find in 19 other states—including Vermont, Nevada, Arizona and New Jersey.⁴

Florida Housing Market Predictions for 2024

We’ve looked at the numbers, so let’s shift into seeing what some real estate gurus are predicting about Florida housing heading into 2024.

1. Buyers and sellers will wait patiently.

Homeownership has gotten a lot more expensive over the last few years, with prices going through the roof back in 2021 and interest rates hitting 20-year highs throughout 2023. What will that mean for potential Florida buyers and sellers in 2024? Florida REALTORS® chief economist Brad O’Connor believes a waiting game is on the horizon.

“Inventory is increasing, which has helped slow price growth,” O’Connor said. “Many buyers and sellers are on the fence now, waiting to see what happens to mortgage rates.”⁵

That sounds about right. After all, the sky-high interest rates we’re seeing right now are keeping a lot of folks from being able to afford buying a home, and many would-be sellers don’t want to move if it means losing a low-interest mortgage they locked in before rates went through the roof.

Find expert agents to help you buy your home.

So, the best move for plenty of people heading into 2024 is sitting on their hands—at least until we get a clearer picture of what interest rates will do moving forward. Speaking of interest rates . . .

2. Interest rates should start going down.

So, what should you expect from mortgage interest rates in 2024? Most likely, rates will finally stop climbing and start dropping. That’s what National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) chief economist Lawrence Yun is predicting.

“I believe we’ve already reached the peak in terms of interest rates,” Yun said. “The question is when are rates going to come down?”⁶

While Yun is right that it’s hard to know exactly when rates will begin decreasing in 2024, virtually everyone agrees that they will at some point. How much will rates go down? NAR’s economic outlook from October 2023 predicts that the typical interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will drop from 7.5% at the beginning of the year to 6.3% by December.⁷

A drop of just over 1% wouldn’t be a game changer, but it would make buying a home a bit more affordable for Floridians by the end of 2024.

3. Inventory will still need a boost.

When supply is low and demand is high in the housing market, prices go up. That’s why they increased so drastically a few years back, and it’s why those high prices have held steady ever since. Even though inventory has steadily gone up since 2021—both in Florida and across the country—it hasn’t grown fast enough to keep up with increasing demand.

Will that trend continue in 2024? Almost definitely. Take it from Ken H. Johnson, an associate dean at Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business. He believes that South Florida could really use 200,000 new housing units per year, but the numbers say the area is currently only getting a tenth of that.

“We are having trouble building homes fast enough,” Johnson said.⁸

Even though Florida’s housing inventory is increasing, it’s not happening fast enough to have a major impact on price or to keep up with the state’s crazy population influx. After all, Johnson also predicts that all nine of Florida’s largest metro areas will see a population growth of 10% or more over the next 10 years—with Orlando and southwest Florida potentially growing at twice that rate.⁹

Moral of the story: Just like every other state, Florida could use a lot more homes on the market in 2024.

Will the Housing Market Crash in Florida?

If you’re concerned about a housing crash in Florida or anywhere else in the U.S. in 2024, you can take a deep breath. That’s because home prices aren’t going to drop substantially in 2024. In fact, prices are actually more likely to go up.

For example, NAR predicts that existing home prices across the U.S. will grow by 2.6% in 2024.¹⁰ Freddie Mac expects a 0.8% bump during the same timeframe.¹¹

So, if you’re waiting on home prices to come down drastically before you buy, you’re going to be waiting for a while—it’s not happening anytime soon.

Is It a Good Time to Buy or Sell a House in Florida in 2024?

Alright, we’ve looked at a whole lot of stats, trends and predictions for the Florida real estate market. As we wrap up, you probably have one important question on your mind: Should I buy or sell in Florida this year? Let’s talk about it.

Here’s the deal: You shouldn’t let the housing market control your decision on whether to buy or sell right now. It’s important to understand real estate trends so you have some context, but you should base your decision on your individual situation.

For example, if you’re buying a house, you need to make sure you’re financially prepared. That means being debt-free with a full emergency fund worth 3–6 months of your typical expenses, and having enough cash saved up to make a down payment of at least 5–10%. (By the way, a 20% down payment is best because it means you won’t have to pay for private mortgage insurance.)

And if you’re selling a house, you need to make sure you can afford the move and that doing so won’t hurt your financial situation. It also wouldn’t be a bad idea to line up a new place to live—though you never want to buy a new house before selling your old one.

Bottom line: You are in control of whether it’s a good time to buy or sell a house in Florida—not the market.

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