Texas Housing Market Predictions 2025

Texas. The Lone Star State. The home of cowboys, big cities and barbecue. It seems like lots of folks are buying homes in Texas—and staying there. In fact, more people moved to Texas in 2023 than almost any other state (second only to Florida).⁵

Are you fixin’ to mosey on down that way? If so, you’re probably wondering about the Texas housing market. Well, you’re in luck! We wrangled up the latest news on the housing market to give you a heads-up on what to expect in the Lone Star State.

Now, the best way to learn about the housing market in Texas is to talk to a real estate agent who actually lives there (you can find one through our RamseyTrusted^® program), but these numbers and predictions will give you a good idea of what to look out for.

Y’all ready? Let’s go!

How’s the Housing Market in Texas?

Inventory (available homes for sale) went up 30.7% in Texas in the last year, which means you’ll have more options if you’re wanting to buy a house. On average, homes stayed on the market for 72 days in the first quarter of 2025 (seven more days than in Q1 of 2024). Closed sales declined 1.5% from Q1 of 2024 to Q1 of 2025. Total home inventory reached 4.8 months of supply in Q1 of 2025, compared to 3.7 in Q1 of 2024. The closer the market gets to six months of supply, the better news it becomes for buyers. That’s because, historically, six months of supply is associated with much calmer home price growth.⁶ This may explain why Texas home prices only saw a 0.3% change.⁷ 

Here’s a look at Texas housing market numbers in Q1 of 2024 compared to Q1 of 2025:

_{*Median sale price refers to the midpoint—half the homes were sold for more, half for less.}

_{**Median time to sale is the number of days between the listing and closing of a home sale—half of homes selling this quarter took more time to sell, half took less.}

_{***Data is from June 20, 2024, and June 18, 2025.}

How’s the Texas housing market in major cities?

Looking at Texas as a whole might not tell the entire story about prices in local housing markets. So, let’s zoom in on some individual places. Here’s a look at median home prices in four of Texas’ biggest cities: Houston, San Antonio, Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin.

How Does Texas Compare to the National Housing Market?

Now, let’s see how Texas’ housing market compares to markets in other parts of the country.

The median home price in the U.S. for existing single-family homes in metro areas was $402,300 in Q1 of 2025—$71,300 higher than the median price in Texas. The national median price went up 3.4% compared to the year before.¹¹

Nearly 17% of markets saw declines in home prices in Q1 of 2025. On the flip side, a few metros with the biggest price increases include Syracuse, New York (+17.9%), Montgomery, Alabama (+16.1%), and Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pennsylvania (13.6%).¹²

Yes, prices are kind of all over the map. But generally, prices have gone up slightly all over the country.

Here’s how median prices for existing single-family homes increased in metro areas across U.S. regions from Q1 of 2024 to Q1 of 2025:

• South: +1.3%
• Midwest: +5.2%
• Northeast: +10.3%
• West: +4.1%¹³

Compared to those numbers, Texas’ 0.3% growth in home prices seems similar to what the South experienced as a whole.

Texas Housing Market Predictions for the Rest of 2025

We’ve already seen how the numbers are shaping up through the first part of the year, so now let’s take a look at what the experts are saying about where the Texas housing market could be headed next.

1. Lower interest rates will encourage home sales.

Good news for buyers: Mortgage rates are holding steady. The 15-year fixed rate sits at 5.89% as of the end of June 2025, down about 0.27% from this time last year.¹⁴ Home sales may still be on the slower side, but that’s opened up more inventory—giving buyers more homes to choose from and a little more breathing room when it comes to making offers.

Lower interest rates mean it’s more affordable to buy a home—so more buyers are jumping into the market, and more sellers are feeling confident enough to list.

2. Home prices will remain stable.

Median home prices were up in 18 of 26 Texas metro areas as of Q1 2025, but changes were generally minor. Currently, the market has about 4.8 months of home inventory. Historically, four to five months of inventory are signs of a balanced market.¹⁵ So, as long as supply continues to increase and gets closer to meeting demand, home prices should remain stable throughout 2025.

3. Homes won’t fly off the market as fast.

If inventory continues to grow, sellers will start to feel an increase in competition and buyers will have more time to make a decision. “Buyers had more opportunities and a little more breathing room to consider their options in the first months of this year compared to last year,” said Christy Gessler, Chairman of Texas REALTORS®. “But prices and sales did not shift much in either direction in most Texas markets.”¹⁶

Will the Housing Market Crash in Texas?

Simple answer: No. If you’re waiting for the housing market to crash, you’ll be waiting for a while (like, probably forever). That’s because for housing prices to totally plummet, inventory would have to go way up to exceed demand. And no one expects that to happen anytime soon.

Should You Buy or Sell in This Texas Market?

Here’s the deal: Don’t make a decision to buy or sell right now just based on the housing market. It’s important to understand real estate trends so you have some context, but you really need to make sure you’re financially prepared to buy a house.

That means being debt-free with a fully funded emergency fund worth 3–6 months of expenses—and having enough cash saved up to make a down payment. Ideally, you’d put 20% down to avoid having to pay for private mortgage insurance (PMI). If you’re a first-time home buyer, a 5–10% down payment is okay—but you will have to pay for PMI. Whatever you do, make sure your mortgage payment is no more than 25% of your take-home pay on a 15-year fixed-rate conventional loan. All this helps you avoid being house poor.

Sure, this advice is different than what many industry “experts” will tell you. It’s now considered normal in America to have a tiny down payment (if any) and for lenders to let you borrow more than you can afford. But “normal” in America is broke. So don’t be normal—be weird. After all, if you live like no one else now, later you can live and give like no one else.

And if you’re selling a house, you need to make sure you can afford the move. It also wouldn’t be a bad idea to line up a new place to live—though you never want to buy a new house before selling your old one.

That said, if you’ve done your research and feel ready to take the next step, don’t go it alone. Work with a RamseyTrusted real estate agent—someone who knows the Texas market and can help you close with confidence. We personally vet and coach every RamseyTrusted agent to make sure they meet our high standards for excellence and know how to put your needs first.  

Connect with a RamseyTrusted agent today!